Israel Election Leaves Netanyahu Without a Clear Route to a Majority

Israel’s election produced a difficult coalition puzzle on October 29, with preliminary results indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc had lost its parliamentary majority and no rival grouping yet able to govern alone. As officials continued counting special ballots, Netanyahu’s Likud party amplified claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election. The allegations were unsubstantiated, and the country’s election committee chair said he could not verify claims of foreign interference.

Opposition parties accused Likud of using the fraud claims to delegitimise the emerging result and cast suspicion on Arab voters. The chair of Israel’s election committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, said serious suspicions had been brought to him and asked the Shin Bet security service to investigate. He also said he could not verify the claims. That request for inquiry is not evidence that manipulation occurred, and the allegation should remain clearly distinguished from a proven finding.

The uncertainty is less about which party is largest than about who can assemble support in the 120-seat Knesset. Reuters reported that Netanyahu’s bloc had fallen to 53 seats in the latest count. The opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot had 48 seats, while two Arab parties together held 19. Those figures suggested that a coalition combining opposition and Arab-party support could reach a majority, but forming such a partnership would be politically difficult and no governing agreement had been announced.

Arab-led parties’ stronger showing has made their role central to coalition arithmetic. Their participation in an Israeli government has been rare: Ra’am joined a governing coalition in 2021, the first time an independent Arab party had done so. Eisenkot’s campaign pledge not to include Arab parties would have to be reconsidered if his bloc sought their votes or formal support. Likud, meanwhile, has sought to make that possibility politically costly by challenging the legitimacy of Arab-backed participation.

Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, is expected to begin consultations with party representatives after official results are published. Under the process described by Reuters, he appoints the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. If that candidate fails, another can try; additional parliamentary steps follow before the country reaches a new election. The process may take weeks and leaves Netanyahu in office as caretaker prime minister in the meantime.

One potential outcome is a unity coalition linking Likud with centrist or right-wing opposition parties, though those parties campaigned on removing Netanyahu and he would have to part with some of his usual allies. Another possibility is a minority government supported by Arab parties from outside the cabinet. If rival blocs cannot bridge their differences, Israel could face another election early next year. Each path depends on negotiations, not merely seat totals.

Qatar denied allegations of foreign involvement, calling them dangerous. The immediate test for the political system is whether the vote count is completed transparently and whether parties accept verifiable results. Until investigators or election authorities publish findings, accusations of stolen votes should not be presented as fact.

Source: Associated Press on the unsubstantiated allegations · Reuters on coalition scenarios